Nikki Haley faces New Hampshire battle to stay in fight with Trump
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On a frigid, snowy day in Concord, dozens of people wearing Nikki Haley pins and t-shirts gathered in signature red booths at the New Hampshire-famous Red Arrow Diner.
They were waiting for a surprise visit from Ms Haley, who was coming off a disappointing night, pushed into third place in the Iowa caucuses behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump, who won in a landslide.
Iowa marked a chance for the former United Nations ambassador to gain much-needed momentum, but Mr Trump's dominant victory cemented his position as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.
Just a day later, however, Ms Haley insisted she was still in the race.
"There are only two serious candidates," she told voters at the Concord diner. "It's about the difference between Trump and me."
The second in a series of state-by-state contests, the New Hampshire primary on 23 January serves as the next test for the candidates - and experts said it may be Ms Haley's best - and perhaps last - opportunity to emerge as the alternative to Mr Trump.
Ms Haley has spent a lot of time campaigning in New Hampshire and recent polling in the state suggests a much closer race there. She has also secured key endorsements from New Hampshire's Republican governor, Chris Sununu, and dozens of local officials.
Mr DeSantis, by contrast, focused his attention on Iowa, campaigning in all 99 counties and spending millions on advertising. He is polling in the single digits in New Hampshire.
"He has a robotic personality that does not resonate with voters," said Sean Westwood, a professor of government at Dartmouth College. "In a world where almost all of his attention was focused on Iowa, he still barely managed to win over Haley."
Yet Ms Haley faces a formidable opponent in the former president, who still has a stronghold on the national Republican Party as well as a loyal base of supporters in rural parts of the state.
"Trump commands the Republican Party," Mr Westwood noted. "He certainly did dominate in Iowa relative to DeSantis and Haley, and he will do the same in New Hampshire."
Still, Ms Haley is hoping to pull off a surprise win next week. And the state's unique set of voters could at least help her cut into Mr Trump's lead, experts said.
Like Iowa, New Hampshire is whiter and more rural than the average US state. However, the swing state in New England - it has a Republican governor and Democratic congressional delegation - is distinct because almost 40% of its electorate are independents. These more moderate voters can choose to vote in the Republican primary if they want.
"Often, historically, we will look at Iowa, and whatever they choose to do, we do the opposite," said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist in the state. "If everybody expects us to zig, sometimes we will zag. There's always a surprise in New Hampshire."
After losing the Iowa caucuses in 2016, for example, Mr Trump won New Hampshire's Republican primary, helping propel him to victory as the Republican nominee later that year. That was proof that Mr Trump can appeal to Granite State voters (even if he went on to lose the state in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections).
Richard Terrell, a 75-year-old resident of Concord, said he believed Mr Trump's record as president would help him win the state's primary.
"He's already proved himself through one administration," he said. "I like everything he did."
Hordes of the former president's supporters braved the cold and snow on Tuesday evening, standing in line for hours before he spoke in Atkinson, New Hampshire.
It was his second destination of the day, after attending his civil defamation damages trial in a Manhattan courthouse. He is being sued by writer E Jean Carroll, who has accused him of raping her decades ago.
Introduced at the New Hampshire event by Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race just a day before, Mr Trump wasted no time before attacking Ms Haley.
"We're still leading her by a lot," he said. "She's not a particular great candidate."
But in the Red Arrow Concord diner on Tuesday morning, New Hampshire Senator Bill Gannon was charmed by Ms Haley.
Eating breakfast alongside state Representative Mike Moffett, the two Republicans said they were impressed by her foreign policy experience and knowledge of New Hampshire issues.
"She's someone my kids could look up to," Mr Gannon said. "She's the whole package. She has a vision for the future."
But to pull ahead of Mr Trump in New Hampshire, Ms Haley will also have to win over some of those independent voters.
Ginny, an independent from Manchester who declined to share her last name for privacy reasons, said she had voted for Republican candidates in the past but did not like any of the 2024 presidential options, including Ms Haley.
"The [current] Republican platform is a disaster for democracy," she said, adding she had concerns about Mr Trump, who is facing dozens of criminal charges across federal and state cases.
Even though Ron DeSantis remains firmly in the race, Ms Haley wants to frame it as a choice between her and the former president.
"Trump is the one I want," Ms Haley told reporters in Concord as she revealed she would only attend this week's Republican debate in the state if Mr Trump showed up too. He has not participated in any debates so far and would not have much to gain from going up against Ms Haley now.
Time is running out for Ms Haley to make her case. And if she fails to succeed in New Hampshire, experts said, there is little hope for her in the next primary in her home state of South Carolina, where polling indicates Mr Trump is in the lead.
"If Donald Trump blows it out in Iowa and blows it out in New Hampshire, it is very difficult to see him losing any other contests moving forward," Mr Bartlett said. "Then the question is: do people stay in this race and why?"
"The starting line could be the finish line here," he added.
Hugging voters and shaking hands at the Concord diner on Tuesday, Ms Haley seemed to be aware of diminishing opportunities.
"All eyes are on us now," she said. "Everyone's looking at New Hampshire."
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